We conduct studies on Critical Issues, Breakthroughs, and Research Reports. Our main focus is forecasting emerging technologies, social trends and wild cards.
Typically, TechCast editors and researchers scan the literature and media, interview authorities, and draw on other sources to identify trends and background data on roughly 60 emerging technologies, 30 social trends and 30 wild cards. This data is summarized to guide the estimates of 150 plus technology officers, research scientists and engineers, scholars, and other experts. Results are aggregated to forecast the most likely year each breakthrough will occur, the potential market size, and experts’ confidence. Emerging technologies are tracked as they pass through the typical life cycle of commercial introduction, mainstream use (30%), etc. The target event being forecast is noted in the title ( intro., 30%, 50%, etc.). Social trends are also tracked through their life cycle, while wild cards are studied for their probability and social impacts.
We find this method to be very powerful. It can forecast any issue, results are replicable within +1/- 3 years, and the process enhances understanding. See more on Methodology.