Highlights of AI Forecast
by the TechCast Team
Popular attitudes toward Artificial Intelligence (AI) range all over the map, with many cautioning about massive unemployment due to automation. Tech-savvy celebrities like Elon Musk warn of the collapse of civilization, while others take AI in stride. Timetables for the coming transformation also are uncertain, running from right now to decades or hundreds of years away.
TechCast has been forecasting AI for about 20 years, as this is one of the most prominent and exciting emerging technologies. As shown in the S-curve above, our experts estimate that 30 percent of routine mental tasks will be automated to smart machines about 2025 +/- 6 years. They also think AI will create a global market approaching US$900 billion/ year, and they relatively confident in this estimate.
Below is the data from our AI Forecast:
Good examples of current AI applications include virtual assistants like Apple's Siri, Microsoft's Cortana, and Google Now, and cognitive solutions like IBM's Watson and neural chips. Such products will relieve humanity of routine mental work in the years ahead, leaving us free for more useful, creative activities that machines can’t do. Andrew Ng, chief scientist at Baidu Research, called AI "the new electricity. Just as electricity transformed industry 100 years ago, AI will now do the same."
Members can access the most recent AI forecast here.
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